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AUTHOR:
TerrorismCentral Editorial Staff

TITLE:
TerrorismCentral Newsletter - May 18, 2003

SOURCE:
TerrorismCentral, May 18, 2003

TEXT:

Following a turbulent week that saw in a new wave of terrorist attacks, the Feature Article reviews events since September 11 that have indicated persistent al Qaeda influence and the international dispersion of its ideology and tactics. Even more important, the News Highlights remind us that terrorism and political violence are global phenomena that must be seen and addressed in their international context.

CONTENTS:

NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:

1. World
2. Africa
3. Americas
4. Asia Pacific
5. Europe
6. Middle East
7. South Asia
8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare
9. Finance
10 Human Rights
11. Law and Legal Issues
12. Narco-terrorism
13. Transportation
14. Weapons of Mass Destruction
15. Recently Published

FEATURE ARTICLE:
Al Qaeda and International Terrorism, Since September 11


NEWS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK


1. World

The Global HIV Prevention Working Group issues their latest report on May 13, emphasizing the scale of the threat the world faces: 45 million new infections before 2010 unless sufficient funding ($4 billion per year -- triple current spending) is made available and immediate action taken. (http://www.gatesfoundation.org/GlobalHealth/HIVAIDSTB/HIVAIDS/Announcements/Announce-030513.htm)

The World Health Organization has issues a new report profiling non-communicable chronic diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, cancers, diabetes, and respiratory conditions. This initiative is designed to begin addressing risk factors related to these conditions. http://www.who.int/mediacentre/releases/2003/pr41/en/

On another health note, the spread of Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) has slowed everywhere except China and Taiwan. In China, expanded disease controls are accompanied by threats of punishment, including execution. For the latest scientific and public health information about SARS, see the May 15 edition of The New England Journal of Medicine that offers extensive coverage. (http://www.nejm.org)

And finally, Iraq's outbreak of cholera has been confirmed, and the alarm has also been raised regarding an outbreak of severe diarrhea particularly among children that is related to continued lack of clean water and sanitation. There is a further epidemic of bullet wounds, with over 200 people killed in the last three weeks, and both the number of homicides and the rate of increase are increasing.

Also in Iraq, the new civilian administrator, Paul Bremer, has identified law and order as the first priority and expects more police and troops to arrive in the next few weeks. Acknowledging that the challenges are greater than anticipated, the US and UK have indefinitely delayed an interim government and national assembly originally scheduled for the end of this month. Efforts to gain international financial participation continue, as the US tries to gain financial support from G8 countries and is working on a UN resolution that would lift sanctions. Getting funds has been helped by the recovery of nearly all of the $1 billion that had been taken from the central bank.

Another looming concern is the failure to find weapons of mass destruction, the biological and chemical agents and nuclear program that provided the putative reason for the invasion of Iraq. Looting at radiological facilities and elsewhere has given rise to the strong possibility that any such agents have dispersed and could find their way to militant groups and terrorists. Added to North Korea's arms trade (soon to offer trade in plutonium as well) and the problem of weapons proliferation assumes on a new and even deadlier profile.

North Korea, meanwhile, has nullified the 1992 agreement with South Korea to keep the peninsula free of nuclear weapons, causing increased consternation in the region. South Korean President Roh met with US President Bush, agreeing there would be no tolerance for nuclear weapons.
 

2. Africa

African defense officials have agreed to build a joint defense force by 2010 to be able to respond rapidly to conflicts and in particular to be able to intervene to prevent genocide.

Algerian commandos freed 17 of the 32 kidnapped European tourists in a raid that killed nine suspected militants of the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat. The whereabouts of the others is unknown.

Burundi army forces fought rebels of the Forces for Defense and Democracy (FDD). Four soldiers and 123 FDD or civilians were killed. Over 12,000 civilians have fled the fighting.

Democratic Republic of Congo is relying on an uneasy ceasefire to take off the edge of a potential genocidal conflict between the warring Hemu and Lendu ethnic militias. The few hundred UN peacekeeping forces are drastically outnumbered, and additional forces are urgently needed. Casualties are heavy but the numbers are as yet unknown.

The UN has approved a peacekeeping mission in Ivory Coast.

Kenya is under warning of imminent terrorist attacks following rumors that senior al Qaeda operative Fazul Abdullah Mohammed had arrived in Kenya. US and UK authorities issued advisories that their nationals leave and the UK has, despite Kenyan objections to a panicky response, has grounded all commercial flights.

The Liberian government is investigating the death of Sam Bockarie. He was wanted on war crimes charges for his actions in Sierra Leone and was killed in Liberia. There is evidence that his family has also been eliminated, possibly to eliminate the use of DNA profiling.

Morocco suffered a series of coordinated bombings in Casablanca. There were three car bombs and one suicide bombing, targeting the Belgian Consulate, a Jewish community center, a hotel, and a Spanish restaurant. Security guards were attacked and their throats slit before the bombings. The death toll stands at 41 and about a hundred have been injured.

Fighting in southern Nigeria between supporters of the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the opposition Alliance for Democracy (AD) killed at least 18.

Rwandan authorities have rearrested 787 genocide suspects who had been provisionally released after new charges were raised.

Somalia's peace talks have been stalled over issues of power sharing.

On Monday South Africa will begin trying 22 alleged members of the Boeremag, a white supremacist group, on charges of treason.

Sudan's peace talks resumed on Saturday with a partnership agreement settling administrative arrangements for the first 6-month transitional period.

The Ugandan army continues to pursue Lord's Resistance army (LRA) rebels who abducted 40 young boys from a Catholic seminary.

Zimbabwe's government has responded to the deteriorating economic and political situation (See Jan Raath, "Zimbabwe sees return of hunter gatherer" in The Times, May 16 http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-681926,00.html) with further force. Despite a judicial stay against his deportation, long-time journalist Andrew Meldrum was forcibly removed from the country. He was one of the last foreign journalists left in the country and has vividly described the events in "After 23 years, Mugabe has thrown me out, but he'll never silence me" in The Observer, May 18 http://www.observer.co.uk/Print/0,3858,4671532,00.html


3. Americas

Argentina's presidential run-off ended in victory for Nestor Kirchner following Carlos Menem's withdrawal.

In Cuba, five men who attempted to hijack a plane in April have been sentenced to life in prison. Three others received long jail terms.

In the US naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, five Saudi nationals were released with the understanding they would be tried in Saudi courts.

An inquiry in Honduras reports that the jail riots that killed 69 were caused by police not prisoners.

In the US, a week of simulated terrorist attacks in Seattle, Chicago and Vancouver ran their course. Analysis of the results will be published in the fall.

US Senate hearings into intelligence have found that cross-agency information sharing is still lacking. The director of the CIA, George Tenet, has refused to provide the names of the CIA officials who failed to add the September 11 hijackers to the federal watch list.

In Venezuela, the government has developed a state-subsidized food program to compensate for shortages in the private sector.


4. Asia Pacific

Australia's Ombudsman's office is investigating allegations that medical treatment had been withheld from asylum seekers in detention. Rates of mental illness in the detention camps are also causing concern. Meanwhile, a controversial security bill to give intelligence services additional powers is under debate.

The Burmese government has approved a return visit by a UN envoy.

Cambodia and the UN have reached an agreement regarding prosecution of former Khmer Rouge leaders.

Indonesia has begun the trial of Amrozi, accused in the October 2002 Bali bombing. Amrozi was smiling and unrepentant and his legal team is focusing of detailed legal arguments to counter the charges.

The Indonesian government declared martial law in Aceh province and authorized a military assault after peace talks with the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) failed over GAM's refusal to accept Indonesian sovereignty.

The world didn't end on May 15 as predicted by Pana Wave Laboratory in Japan. Pana Wave has been under close supervision of Japanese authorities who fear they could go the way of the Aum Shrinrikyo, another cult, responsible for the 1995 Sarin gas attack.

The Philippine army launched air strikes and artillery fire against the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) on the southern island of Mindanao. The army claims to have killed 50 MILF, but the rebels deny any casualties. Peace talks collapsed in the face of increasing violence and the resignation of the government's special advisor. Two hostages of Abu Sayyaf escaped; the last remaining hostage is believed dead.


5. Europe

The EU's moratorium on genetically modified food will be challenged by the US. Given the strength of feeling among Europeans, against GM food it promises to be quite a debate.

Greek Cypriots will be allowed to visit Turkey from May 22, for the first time in almost 40 years.

Germany's domestic intelligence agency reports a continued serious threat from al Qaeda operatives in Germany and elsewhere in Europe, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, the Arabian peninsula, southeast Asia, Chechnya and northern Iraq.

Italian police have broken apart a human trafficking ring that auctioned unborn babies of prostitutes forced to work for the ring.

In the Netherlands, 12 suspected Islamic militants went on trial for alleged support of al Qaeda.

In Russia, two gunmen assassinated the mayor of Troytsk, near Moscow. The Russian Supreme Court has ruled that Muslim women will be allowed to wear their headscarves in passport photos.

In Chechnya, two suicide bombers drove an explosives-laden truck rammed into a government complex and blew up, killing 54 and injuring almost 200. In a second major suicide attack, a female suicide bomber blew herself up during a religious festival, killing 15 and injuring dozens more. Despite the new violence, Russian President Putin has sent a bill to parliament to offer amnesty to Chechen rebels to help the progress of peace. He has also vowed to defeat the terrorists. Russian authorities have linked the attacks with those in Saudi Arabia and other foreign terrorist activities.

Spain's Constitutional Court barred a Basque coalition from contesting local elections because of alleged links to Basque-separatist terrorism as practiced by ETA and the political wing, Batasuna. Two senior members of ETA have proposed they be allowed to renounce their arms and leave the group. If true, this would be the first split within the organization for two decades.

In the UK, proposals to adopt increased anti-terrorism powers have come under fire by civil rights groups. Routine collection of information from internet and telephone companies is also under fire and may breach existing privacy rules.

Revelations last week of the identity of the double agent "Stakeknife" have taken another turn as Freddie Scappaticci denies being an informer and other reports indicate that there were not one but five agents working within the Irish Republican Army (IRA). The revelations have posed problems for the British government, the IRA, and even the peace process, and many more twists and turns seem ahead as the saga continues to unfold.


6. Middle East

There is general skepticism about the fate of the roadmap intended to bring peace to Palestinians and Israelis. Israeli Prime Minister Sharon has not yet accepted the roadmap, planning to negotiate terms directly with US President Bush. If Bush accedes to Sharon's demands, it is likely that the precarious plan would unravel very quickly, and US relations with the other members of the Quartet that developed the roadmap (the UN, EU and Russia) would be dealt a further blow. News of this will have to wait for Sharon's trip to the US to be rescheduled. It was postponed following the latest suicide bombing. US Secretary of State Colin Powell toured the region this week, pushing the roadmap to a highly critical audience that is watching to see what Israel does.

The goodwill gesture that led Israel to open the occupied Gaza Strip lasted less than a day, immediately followed by the tightest military closure for years. The closure was taken after warnings of possible suicide attacks. Palestinians launched a mortar attack on Tuesday, injuring ten Israelis at an army base. Israeli troops retaliated with helicopter gunships, killing three Palestinian policemen and injuring two police and twenty civilians. Targeting rocket attacks, Israeli troops added tanks and helicopters in another large-scale offensive. Four Palestinians were killed, including a 12-year-old boy who bled to death when emergency workers were prevented from entering. Four homes were bulldozed.

Iranian and US officials have held discussions regarding Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Arab-Israeli conflict. Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has taken a strong stand against relations with the US and accused the US of preparing to invade Iran. He has promised continued support to Hizbollah's resistance against Israeli occupation. The US has accused Iran of developing biological, chemical and nuclear weapons.

Israeli Prime Minister Sharon, preparing for future direct discussions with US President Bush, has said that the question of Jewish settlements was not open for discussion at this time. He has for the first time met with the new Palestinian Prime Minister, Mahmoud Abbas. However, a shadow was cast over this meeting and Sharon's trip to the US was delayed with another suicide bombing. This attack was on a bus in Jerusalem. It killed seven and injured twenty. A second suicide bomber blew himself up as emergency workers arrived but did not cause other casualties.

Jordan has charged 11 men with conspiracy for terrorism. Some are allegedly linked to al Qaeda.

As more mass graves are discovered in Iraq, the fate of hundreds of missing Kuwaitis, lost since the 1991 Gulf war, is being revealed.

The Lebanese army has arrested nine suspected members of a terrorist network.

In what has been called Saudi Arabia's September 11, a group of coordinated suicide bombings in Riyadh killed 34 and injured 194. The attacks were directed against business and housing compounds used by foreign residents. Last week, 19 suspects escaped a police raid and are now suspected in connection to this attack, which has been linked to al Qaeda.

Syria has dropped its objections to the Middle East roadmap but there are mixed messages over whether action would be taken against Hizbollah.

In Yemen, a judge was injured in a courtroom explosion where the week before suspected al Qaeda militant Abed Abdulrazzak Kamel was sentenced to death for killing three US missionaries.


7. South Asia

Afghanistan's security situation is not improving, with Taliban forces routinely targeting Afghan forces and factional fighting continuing around the country. UN staff will be given armed escorts.

India and Pakistan plan to begin discussions. In another measure to restore diplomatic ties, they have both appointed ambassadors after a diplomatic breach that has lasted 18 months and led to increased fears of a nuclear conflict.

In the Indian state of Assam, militants involved in tribal clashes killed the son of the state mining minister. West Bengal, 26 people died and 40 were injured in election-related violence.

Nepal's Maoist rebels have accused the government of insincerity and failing to inspire confidence in the peace process.

In Karachi, Pakistan, eighteen small bombs went off at twelve Shell gasoline stations, causing minimal damage but offering a reminder of the extent of militant groups.

Pakistan has banned Masood Azhar, head of Jaish-e-Mohammad from entering Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

Sri Lanka's peace talks remain stalled and the Norwegian mediator will return for further efforts. The stumbling block now is around control of reconstruction funds.


8. Cyberterrorism and Information Warfare

The Fizzer virus, spread through Windows Outlook email programs and peer-to-peer file sharing networks like Kazaa, contains malicious code that can track keystrokes and deliver a Trojan so makes it more dangerous than many other viruses.

Two new surveys showed that viruses and other security risks remain high because people and companies are not taking basic precautions. Symantec found that small firms use anti-virus software but do not always update it, and few have secured or monitored network layers that are vulnerable to unpatched software. Deloitte and Touche surveyed financial institutions and found that despite heavy investments more than a third had a major security breach in the past year.

In related research, mi2g with other groups conducted a business continuity and disaster survey and found that a third of those surveyed had no business continuity capability and that even among those that did, there were serious gaps in communications and processes to support it.

A new financial services threat was identified last week when it was found that credit card numbers were sometimes recycled, opening a loophole for fraud. And in another development, it was found that counterfeit cashier's checks were in circulation in the US where they have been used for false online payments.

Electronic frauds gained attention in the US this week as legal actions were taken against unsecured email relay systems that hide identity. The first criminal case in New York under a new law was brought against Howard Carmack, the "Buffalo Spammer".

9. Finance

In a new twist on the Nigeria 419 advance fee scams, counterfeit checks are being used for false online purchases. The US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation has also announced the circulation of fraudulent cashier's checks.

Israeli police have arrested members of the Islamic Movement of Israeli Arabs on charges of funding Hamas.

Banks in the Solomon Islands were forced to close following a failed pyramid scheme. International financial institutions pulled out while waiting for law and order to be reestablished.

Nauru faces sanctions over its passport business. See Glenn Simpson's "Tiny Pacific Island Is Big Worry for U.S." in The Wall Street Journal, May 16.

The Association of Certified Anti-Money Laundering Specialists has created an AML certification test.


10. Human Rights

The UN general assembly has approved a plan to open a special court to try former Khmer Rouge leaders for genocide. Concerns remain over possible interference by government authorities that have a history of interfering with Cambodian judicial systems.

The Russian Supreme Court has ruled that Muslim women will be allowed to wear their headscarves in passport photos.


11. Law and Legal Issues

Amrozi, accused in the October 2002 Bali bombing, has begun his trial in Indonesia.

Jamal Badawi and Fahd Quso were indicted by a federal grand jury in New York, US, in connection with the October 2000 USS Cole attack that killed 17 US sailors.

Manuel Contreras, former head of Augosto Pinochet's secret police in Chile, has been indicted in the 1974 kidnapping, torture and disappearance of a Spanish priest.

Christian Ganczarski has been released from prison in Saudi Arabia where he had been held for alleged connections with al Qaeda's attack in Tunisia last April. The Saudis were going to deport him to Germany but the Germans were unable to get sufficient evidence to bring charges and he is now free.

Haffan al-Hasham, alleged al Qaeda  member, has been arrested in Pakistan.

Zacarias Moussaoui, alleged "20th hijacker", has again received a favorable ruling that he be allowed to depose al Qaeda operative Ramzi Binalshibh for his defense. The federal court has also agreed to hold an open hearing scheduled for June 3.

Abdelghani Mzoudi has been charged in Germany as an accessory to Mohamed Atta, a September 11 hijacker.

Terry Nichols, convicted conspirator in the Oklahoma City bombing, will now stand trial in state court on 160 counts of murder.

Eliezer Niyitegeka was convicted of genocide, conspiracy to commit genocide, and public incitement to commit genocide in Rwanda in 1994. He was sentenced to life in prison.

Oscar Petmezci on trial for planning to bomb a US Army headquarters in Germany, has been convicted of the lesser charges of posse4ssing explosives and drugs. Astrid Eyzaguirre had already been released.

Miroslav Radic has been extradited from Serbia to The Hague where he will face charges of war crimes.

Laurent Semanza was found guilty of complicity to commit genocide and crimes against humanity in connection with the 1994 Rwandan genocide. He was sentenced to 25 years in prison.

Yasein Taher has become the fifth of the "Lackawanna Six" arrested in Buffalo, New York, to plead guilty to receiving weapons and explosives training in Afghanistan.

Morgan Tsvangirai, Zimbabwe's opposition leader, is on trial for charges to planning to assassinate President Mugabe.


12. Narco-terrorism

Coca production in Bolivia and Peru is increasing, largely due to the determination of local peasants to make a living when they have no realistic alternatives.


13. Transportation

The US Department of Homeland Security is evaluating technologies to deter missile attacks against airplanes.

The US Bureau of Customs and Border Protection plans to deploy video cameras with analytical capabilities to analyze activities at the Canadian border.

British officials plan to add sky marshals to UK flights.

A review of proposed security improvements at Los Angeles International Airport has found the investment would actually increase vulnerability. See Jennifer Oldham's "Plan to Hike Security at LAX Faulted" in the Los Angeles Times, May 15.


14. Weapons of Mass Destruction

The US Congress voted to fund research into a new generation of tactical nuclear weapons.

Iraq's al-Tuwaitha nuclear complex, containing 200 radioactive isotopes for medical and industrial use, has been looted. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been barred from investigating the facility that had previously been under its watch. This raises serious concerns over the possibility of radioactive material getting into the hands of terrorists.

Russia's lower house of parliament has ratified the nuclear arms reduction treaty with the US. It had been postponed for nearly two months in protest against the US-led war on Iraq. Russia has begun testing their heavy bombers and cruise missiles in joint exercises with India.


15. Recently Published

Anonymous. "Terrorist Hunter: The Extraordinary Story of a Woman Who Went Undercover to Infiltrate the Radical Islamic Groups Operating in America" Harper Collins/Ecco

Randa Ghazy, "Dreaming of Palestine" Braziller (novel)

Andrew Huebner "We Pierce" Simon and Schuster (novel)

Bruce Hoffman, "The Logic of Suicide Terrorism: Lessons from Israel that America Must Learn" The Atlantic Monthly, June 2003

Douglas H. Johnson, "The Root Causes of Sudan's Civil Wars" Indiana University Press

Mansour Khalid "War and Peace in Sudan: A Tale of Two Countries" Kegan Paul

Martin Rees, "Our Final Hour: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future in This Century -- on Earth and Beyond" Basic Books

William Taubman, "Kruschev: The Man and His Era" Free Press


FEATURE ARTICLE: Al Qaeda and International Terrorism, Since September 11

Peace in Afghanistan? Freedom in Iraq? Al Qaeda on the run? None of these objectives have been achieved. While this should be no surprise to readers of this Newsletter, the surge in terrorist attacks over the last week has clearly caught many off guard, not least a US administration still flush from its self-proclaimed military "victories".

In fact, attacks have continued and indications are that the even while the world continues to shrink, the divisions that have contributed to this violence are increasing, and inspiring a new generation of young militants.

"Al Qaeda" means "the Base". It is important to remember that the group inspired by Osama bin Laden, trained in the Iran/Iraq war, Afghanistan, and other global hot spots, is not a simple military organization but, rather, a loose grouping of people around the world that share a common ideology and common goals.

Remember these?

2001:
-------
* October 1. Indian-administered Kashmir. Car bomb at the State Legislative Assembly Building killed 15 and injured 40.Jaish-e-Mohammad?
* October 6. Al Khubar, Saudi Arabia. Suicide bomber at shopping area killed one and injured five.
* December 13. New Delhi, India. Armed attack on India’s Parliament while in full session, killing 13. Lashkar-e-Tayyiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed?

2002:
-------
* January 22. Calcutta India. Armed attack on US Consulate, killing five and injuring 13. Harakat ul-Jihad-I-Islami and Asif Raza Commandos
* February 28. Amman, Jordan. Car bomb killed two
* March 17. Islamabad, Pakistan. Grenades thrown inside a church killed five and injured 46. Lashkar-e-Tayyiba?
* March 30. Jammu, Kashmir. Bomb at a Hindu temple killed 10 persons. Islamic Front
* April 11. Djerba, Tunisia. Suicide bomber crashed and detonated a propane gas truck into synagogue, killing 19 and injuring 22. Islamic Army for the Liberation of the Holy Sites, associated with al Qaeda
* May 9. Kapiisk, Dagestan, Russia. Remote-controlled bomb at May Day Parade killed 42 and injured 150. Islamist militants alleged, associated with al Qaeda
* May 11. Karachi, Pakistan. Suicide vehicle bomb outside hotel killed 12 and wounded 19. Al-Qaida?
* June 14. Karachi, Pakistan. Vehicle bomb near the US Consulate killed 12 and injured 45. Al Qaida funded and Al-Qa’nun executed?
* July 5. Larbaa, Algeria. Bomb in downtown area killed 35 and wounded 80. Armed Islamic Group (GIA)?
* July 13. Jammu, Kashmir. Armed attack killed 27. The Lashkar-e-Tayyiba alleged.
* August 5. Murree, Pakistan. Gunmen attacked a school and killed six. al-Intigami al-Pakistani
* September 11. Tikipora, Kashmir, Armed attack killed Law Minister and guards. Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, Jamiat ul-Mujahedin, and Hizb ul-Mujahedin.
* October 6. al-Dhabbah, Yemen. Small boat rammed French oil tanker Limburg and exploded, killing one and wounding four others. Al Qaida?
* October 8. Failaka Island, Kuwait. Gunmen killed one US Marine and wounded another. Al-Qaida?
* October 12. Bali, Indonesia. Car bombs outside nightclubs killed 187 and injured 300. Local Islamic militants associated with Al-Qaida
* October 23. Moscow, Russia. Three-day siege of theater; six killed. Chechen militants linked to al Qaeda?
* October 25. Car explosion at a McDonald's killed one and injured eight. Chechen militants linked to al Qaeda?
* October 28. Amman, Jordan. Gunmen killed a US diplomat. Honest People of Jordan linked to al Qaeda.
* November 21. Sidon, Lebanon. Gunman killed a US office manager/nurse for a church-run health facility. An’ Asbat al-Ansar alleged.
* November 24. Jammu, Kashmir. Armed attacks at two temples killed 13 and wounded 50. Lashkar-e-Tayyiba.
* November 28. Mombasa, Kenya. Vehicle with three suicide bombers drove into Paradise Hotel and exploded killing 15 and wounding 40. Al-Qaida, the Government of Universal Palestine in Exile, and the Army of Palestine claimed responsibility. Al-Ittihad al-Islami (AIAI) also linked.
* December 6. Makassar, Indonesia Bomb at McDonald’s restaurant killed three and injured 11. Laskar Jundullah?
* December 6. Bombay, India. Bomb at McDonald’s restaurant injured 23.
* December 27. Grozny, Chechnya. Suicide bombers detonated two trucks at the government building killing 83 persons and wounding 160.
* December 30. Jibla, Yemen. Gunman at missionary hospital killed three persons and wounded one. Affiliated with the Islah Party.

2003:
-------
* January 6. Algeria. Ambush and attack on village killed 52. Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) and Armed Islamic Group (GIA)
* January 21. Kuwait. Ambush killed two foreign contractors.
* January 25. Saudi Arabia. Gunmen killed one and wounded three.
* February 4. Karachi, Pakistan. Motorcycle bomb killed one and injured seven.
* March 27. Algeria. Attack at fake roadblock against travelers killed nine. GIA?
* April 3. Mindanao, Philippines. Bomb near ferry terminal killed 16 and injured 50. MILF?
* April 3. Chechnya. Passenger bus blown up, killing six and injuring nine.
* May 10. Mindanao, Philippines. Bomb at marketplace killed 12. MILF alleged.
* May 12. Coordinated suicide bombings in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia that killed 34 and injured 194
* May 12. Chechnya. Suicide bomb on local government buildings killed 60 and injured 200.
* May 14. Chechnya. Suicide bombing by two women killed 14 and injured 100.
* May 15. Karachi, Pakistan. Eighteen small bombs went off at twelve Shell gasoline stations, causing minimal damage.

This list represents only a tiny fraction of all terrorist attacks. There are thousands of examples of attacks against "western interests" including expatriate workers, tourism, military installations, foreign oil companies and others involved in extracting natural resources, and flagship foreign products like McDonalds and Coke. Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan should also not be ignored.

Even as abbreviated as this list is, it indicates a pattern that demonstrates that the events of the past week were predictable and are likely to represent only the beginning of a new cycle of violence. It is past time that governments recognize that al Qaeda is not an organized army that will be defeated by military means. Instead, it is a diverse, diffuse movement that requires a series of equally complex responses. These trends can only be understood in the context of the world as a whole -- reacting to a threat only after it hits home is too late.

(Note: For more details on various attacks, consult the Newsletter archives or the Knowledge Base.)


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